DC United vs Houston Dynamo POSTPONED

Lack of power at the stadium has caused the game to be postponed until tomorrow night. Call your friends and let them know.

Ben Olsen Has Another Surgery

If it seems too good to be true, it usually is. Ben Olsen has had another ankle surgery to try and reduce the pain he experienced when training with United in the week leading up to his fifteen minute appearance against LA. While not expected to "end his season", it is another setback for Olsen following his career year in 2007.

Halfway Point

After the win over LA, DC United has officially reached the halfway point in the regular season schedule. This is the traditional point in baseball to double your stats and see where you are. I figure, if it's good enough for baseball...

Projected 2008 Full Season Stats (2007) Difference

Goals
Emilio 20 (20) 0
Moreno 12 (7) +5
Gallardo 8 (N/A)
Quaranta 4 (N/A)
Simms 4 (0) +4
Fred 2 (7) -5
Martinez 2 (N/A)
Namoff 2 (0) +2
Peralta 2 (N/A)
Dyachenko 1 (1) 0
Burch 0 (1) -1
Olsen 0 (7) -7

Assists

Moreno 14 (6) +8
McTavish 8 (0) +8
Fred 6 (8) -2
Gallardo 6 (N/A)
Quaranta 6 (N/A)
Burch 4 (3) +1
Dyachanko 4 (0) +4
Emilio 4 (1) +3
Simms 4 (3) +1
Cordeiro 2 (N/A)
Martinez 2 (N/A)
Niell 1* (N/A)
Olsen 0 (7) -7

* No longer with team

United also would be at 44 points which would place them solidly in the playoffs. If they were to improve their second half record to 11-0-4 (W-D-L) they would net 33 points and would be at 55, exactly the pace for an average Supporter's Shield. So that's the target. Eleven wins and 33 more points.

Frank O'Neil heads back to Ireland

Irish forward Frank O'Neil has been cut from DC United's roster and will head back to the Emerald Isle to...what's that? Not Irish? Argentinian? With a last name like O'Neil? Franco Niell? Oh. Never mind.

Ich Bin Ein Berliner

DC United has issued a press release announcing the partnership with Volkswagen and photos of what the new uniforms will look like. I think I can get used to it. Not overly large, matches the uniform well and the circle logo even evokes a soccer ball a bit. All in all, very palatable.

Olsen's Bad Wheel

According to Goff, DC United midfielder and my favorite player, Ben Olsen's career is in some danger. This is really sad news. In the back of my mind, I thought this was a possibility but I refused to really acknowledge it. Goff's report puts it in black and white. I wish Benny the best and won't be trading in my #14 jersey any time soon. However, this has real personnel ramifications for DC United this season. Last season Olsen was moved out to the wing because there wasn't anyone else to play there. Now the options are Quaranta who was cut recently, McTavish and Burch who are defenders, and Young Player To Be Named Later (Kirk, Jeff Carroll, Stratford). Maybe there will be a signing this summer to replace him, otherwise that could be a big hole to fill.

DC United Now Diesel Powered

It has been revealed that DC United has signed an agreement with German auto manufacturer Volkswagen to be the company to place it's logo in the gigantic empty space on DC United's 2008 jerseys. We all knew this was coming. I'm of two minds about it. I don't like the idea of jersey advertising. It seems cheap and tacky. However, I realize that soccer doesn't have the same opportunities to sell advertising as the traditional American sports do. There are no TV timeouts, no stops in the action, no "we'll be back after this". So you have signs along the sidelines, you have logos next to the clock on TV, and you have jersey sponsors. The reported numbers are $3.7 million a year. That is a big number, and it is more than I thought DC Untied would get. It dwarfs the current salary cap number.

I will reserve final judgement until I see the design. I would imagine it would debut next Thursday on the ESPN national TV game. It has to be either a white or red logo on the black background and a black or red logo on the white background I would think. I am having a tough time picturing a circular logo on the jersey after the Adidas triple horizontal stripes.

But as Robert C. Gallagher said, "Change is inevitable - except from a vending machine."

Movement at Poplar Point on Stadium

According to this morning's Washington Post, DC Mayor Adrian Fenty has proposed using public funds to build a stadium for DC United on Poplar Point that may cost as much as $190 million. Now this is unexpected. The feelings here were that there would be no news on a stadium until the newness of the yet to be opened Nationals Stadium had worn off and the "one thing at a time" DC Council could be pointed in a new direction. I am glad to be proven wrong. It appears that a winner has been chosen to develop the site, Clark Realty Capital of Bethesda (yeah, Bethesda!) and their design includes space for a stadium next to the centrally located park.

So what does this mean to United? Not much for now. This signals the beginning of the next round of negotiations between the mayor's office, the City Council, and DC United. At best, a stadium could be ready for the 2011 season, but most likely 2012 or 2013. United would be smart to continue talking to Prince George's County to keep the pressure on Fenty to not get distracted, and "Mayor for Life" Marion Barry also should keep up his shouting campaign which seems to have been very effective.

All in all, good news and a positive step. But it is far from a completed deal. And I have to say, I am partial to the Poplar Point site being that it is in the name of this blog and all. I'm just sayin'...

EDIT: D at the DCenters posted his thoughts within minutes of my post. Here are his thoughts, although it was on B4 of my paper, not A1. He must get the "Soccer Edition" of The Post at his house.

Hello. My Name Is...

So who is left? Moreno is back along with Emilio. Benny, Clyde, and Fred return as well. So do Namoff, McTavish, and Burch. That is eight returning players who were starters for the second half of the season. Not all of them are guaranteed starters, though. It is conceivable that there will be five or six new starters on opening day or shortly thereafter. Remember, even though Fred was clearly one of the top eleven last April, he didn't crack the starting lineup for about six weeks.

And who are the men who are set to take their positions in DC United's starting lineup? A flock of South Americans, that's who. There are a three Argentinians, a Colombian, and a Peruvian. A forward, a midfielder, two defenders, and a goalie. I've seen in several places that there is an open competition for goalie, the two defenders are likely to start in central defense and Gallardo is the new #10. And who would object to seeing Moreno alternate playing the first sixty minutes one game and being a sub in the next game? Of course, this all depends on the quality of talent that is being brought in. Last year was quite successful with the Brazilians. But Filomeno and Donnet? Not so much.

And what about Christian Gomez? Looks like the hero of 2004 and the MVP of 2006 will be moving on, possibly to another MLS team. D at The DCenters doubts that Gomez qualifies as a United Legend. I tossed around this subject with a post wondering why there was only one member (now two) in the DC United Tradition of Excellence, aka Hall of Fame. Jamie is a guarantee to join Marco and Harkes. Who deserves to join them? I think Pope is a lock, and Olsen is right behind him. And can you leave off Bruce Arena? That's my list: Moreno, Etcheverry, Harkes, Pope, Olsen, and Arena. Click the link for my arguments. Oh, and add two Supporter's Shields to Olsen's resume. I put Gomez in the same rank as Ryan Nelsen: excellent while they were here, but not enough years to get into the most exclusive group.

Veron a No Go for Now

Turns out there was no there there. Veron isn't coming any time soon.

Here is my take: He wants to come but not until next summer. I am pretty sure I read that his team qualified for a tournament that will be played between now and June. I could see him reupping with his current team and then trying for a transfer. I see this as unlikely to work as United would have to pay a transfer fee. I honestly have no idea what United does now. It really looks like Moreno and Gomez are leaving. If they do, here is your DC United starting lineup:

Emilio, Kpene, Dyachenko, Olsen, Fred, Simms, Namoff, McTavish, Vanney, Burch, and Wells. The bench? Empty as far as I can tell.

Now repeat after me....

The front office knows what it is doing...The front office knows what it is doing...The front office knows what it is doing...The front office knows what it is doing...

Goodbye, Bozilla. Hello Veron?

I have to say, I'm a bit put out that Bobby Boswell has been traded. I think it's a clear loss if Perkins leaves, Boswell leaves and Zack Wells arrives. Maybe the transfer money will help sign Veron, but our suspect defense just got weaker. There is absolutely no depth now. All of the defenders are now starters. Namoff, Vanney, McTavish, and Burch are all fine independently, but I don't know if they add up to a cohesive backline. And with Gros doubtful for 2008, who on the roster could play if Namoff goes down for a few games? Or Vanney?

Now the whole Veron is coming! No he isn't! thing is getting old fast. If SI.com blew this it will look really bad for them. They even list Wednesday for the press conference. I am in favor of this signing. However, adding Veron and losing Gomez and maybe Moreno doesn't make DC United a better team. There has to be more. I anxiously await the completion of the 2007 offseason painting. I just hope it's a masterpiece. Right now it's finger paints by a preschooler.

So Long, Brian

Well, I got my wish. Brian Carroll was left unprotected and was selected in the Expansion Draft by San Jose. While I have appreciated Carroll's effort, his lack of skill became more and more apparent over the last two years. Maybe in a different system he will be a more productive player. So good luck out west, Brian. You won't be missed here, but you were a part of a very exciting era in DC United's history, including an MLS Cup and two Supporter's Shields. So, that says something at least.

Who Will Go?

With the San Jose Earthquakes reentering the league, there will be a dispersal draft. Each current MLS team will lose a player while being able to protect their top eleven. This got me thinking, who would I protect and why? So, here is my list of the eleven players I would protect, assuming all are under contract and are returning for next season. And I don't know what the rules are for developmental players, so I will assume they are available.

Luciano Emilio
Fred
Christian Gomez
Ben Olsen
Clyde Simms
Bryan Namoff
Troy Perkins
Marc Burch
Devon McTavish
Bobby Boswell
Justin Moose

So who does that leave unprotected?

Jamie Moreno
Greg Vanney
Rod Dyachenko
Josh Gros
Jamil Walker
Jay Nolly
Domenic Mediate
Guy-Roland Kpene
Stephen deRoux
Jeff Carroll
Brian Carroll
Nicholas Addlery
Bryan Arguez
Shawn Crowe
And a few other players you've never heard of who are on United's 40 man roster.

So the obvious question: How can DC leave Moreno unprotected? Honestly, I don't think San Jose would take him. Too injury prone, too old, too expensive. He is great for United and I hope he can play for a few more years. But, San Jose needs to be looking three to five years down the road and Jamie simply won't be playing that long. So who do I think San Jose would pick from this list? Rod Dyachenko. Who do I want them to pick? Brian Carroll. We'll see what happens.

I'll update the list as I learn more about the specifics of the rules.

College Park Perspective?

DC Mayor Fenty has taken a shot across his bow with the announcement and article detailing Maryland's intention to try and lure DC United across the state line into Prince George's County. While DC United officials have yet to put the mayor over a barrel and tell him flat out "you are going to blow this and here is your deadline," they implication is clear. DC United is not going to wait forever. In a move similar to former mayor Sharron Pratt Kelly, Fenty has basically turned a deaf ear to United and appears to not be moving forward in any tangible way. The result with the Redskins was Jack Kent Cooke got tired of waiting and signed a deal with, you guessed it, Prince George's County to build his 90,000 seat stadium next to the Beltway. Hey, look at that map, College Park is right next to the Beltway, too. I could imagine a 25,000 seat stadium going up somewhere along Kenilworth Avenue, north of East West Highway. I used to live in that area and there is a gigantic park, Greenbelt Park, which extends from Kenilworth Avenue to the Baltimore-Washington Parkway. You could imagine entrances/exits both to the BW Parkway and onto Kenilworth Avenue which is 8 lanes wide there, I believe. The College Park Metro Station is also a half mile from the south west corner of the park.

Not that I want the stadium to be in Maryland. However, it just shows that there are locations which make sense to DC United if DC continues to drag their feet. If the location is within walking distance of a Metro station, has access to nearby highways, and is able to be developed or will be subsidized by the local government, this could work. I would think DC has until the end of next year to make significant progress towards choosing a location DC United officials are happy with. And don't forget, Daniel Snyder is rumored to be very interested in moving the Redskins back to DC, possibly to the RFK site. You could imagine a scenario which goes like this:

1. Nationals Park opens, Fenty still upset about the fleecing of Washington, DC
2. DC continues to stonewall United
3. United looks at other options, continues to hope for movement from DC
4. Redskins announce their intention to scout out new locations for a state of the art, retractable roof stadium which will be Super Bowl capable and hold 100,000 fans
5. DC, unable to keep two thoughts in their head at a time, forgets all about DC United

Why would DC United wait around for that? Even though the mayor is a virtual lock to use opening day to pander to the fans and promise a stadium in the "near future", the promises now ring hollow.

DC United Retains Supporter's Shield

Colorado Rapids defeated Chivas USA which left them three points behind DC United with one game to play. DC United holds the tie breaker with Chivas, so DC United have clinched the MLS Supporter's Shield. DC have become the only team in MLS history to finish with the top regular season record in consecutive years.

Congrats to DC United. Another trophy for the case.

So, they last game of the year is meaningless. Moreno can rest up after a long trip to South America, Fred can take it easy, Olsen and Vanney can rest their old legs, maybe give Perkins a night off. Give the kids a game, let the fans give a cheer, and we'll see everyone in the playoffs. And in case you didn't see it, DC's first home playoff game will be Thursday November 1.

DC United Clinches #1 Seed in East

Thanks to thier scoreless tie with Chicago, DC United has clinched home field advantage for the duration of the playoffs. The Supporter's Shield is still pending. If Chivas USA loses their game today, United retains the Supporter's Shield regardless of the results of the final game.

Looking Ahead at the Chances

I don't know about anyone else, but I am starting to get excited for some thrilling times to come at RFK. If United can hold off the rest of the league, there is a potential for three home playoff games, one of which is the MLS Cup. So, since I love me some stats, I want to look at what I think the chances are that I will be at MLS Cup cheering on the Black and Red.

There are three factors involved in United playing in the MLS Cup at RFK.

1. Will United finish in first place in the East?
2. How does United play at home? How do the rest of the teams play on the road?
3. Are the best players healthy, available, and in the lineup?

To address the first factor, let's look at the potential playoff teams in the East.

DC - 49 Points, 5 Games (3 H, 2 A), Max Possible Points - 64
NE - 45 Points, 5 Games (2 H, 3 A), Max Possible Points - 60
NY - 37 Points, 5 Games (3 H, 2 A), Max Possible Points - 52
KC - 36 Points, 5 Games (2 H, 3 A), Max Possible Points - 51
CHI - 30 Points, 6 Games (3 H, 3 A), Max Possible Points - 48

So barring an epic collapse, United only has to worry about New England for top seed in the East. United has an extra home game over the Revolution and a four point cushion. United won the season series with two wins and a tie, so DC clinches the top seed with 60 points if NE maxes out their points. That is unlikely, so let's say they do really well and win four of the five games. United would need eight points to win the East. Win two of three at home and get two points on the road and they are there. Chances of winning the East: 90%.

If United wins the East, they have a home and home in the first round against New York, Kansas City, or Chicago. United is 9-2-1 (W-D-L) at home this season with a +13 goal differential. Their only loss was the first one in April, so United is on an eleven game unbeaten streak at home and a four game winning streak. The best road team of the three is Kansas City. They are 3-4-5 with a -4 goal differential. United on the road is one of only two teams to be above .500 at 6-2-5. United also has the best road goal differential at +7. So United has a distinct advantage in the first round. Chances of winning the first round: 80%.

Now, let's assume New England advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. United has owned them this year, outscoring them 8-3 in three games. United's home record compared to New England's road record (6-2-4, -2 GD) again favors United. Chances of winning the Eastern Conference Championship game: 70 %.

So that leaves the third factor, lineups. The DC United coaching staff seems to have figured out who the best players are and are getting tremendous results recently. My only quibble is Vanney over Boswell, but that is minor compared to Simms/Carroll. So, will everyone be available for each game? Injuries and suspensions can crop up. Chances of fielding the top lineup: 95%.

So, if my unscientific and completely subjective guesses are right, what are the chances of DC United hosting the MLS Cup at RFK? United has a 48% chance. See, that's why I am getting excited.

Jamie Moreno - MLS All-Time Goals Scored Leader

United's #99, Jamie Moreno, now stands alone atop the list of the greatest goal scorers in Major League Soccer's twelve year history. Moreno scored number 109 on a penalty against New York in DC United's 3-1 victory. Congratulations, Jamie.

Two Months To Go - A Look Ahead

A very crowded schedule awaits DC United as they head into the final third of their regular season schedule. DC has put itself in fine position for a run to the playoffs, but the next four weeks may determine everything. While they have been dominating at home, on the road, DC is far from the same team. Their goal scoring (8 goals in 9 road games) and overall record of 3-1-5 (W-D-L), leave much to be desired and if they aren't able to correct the trend, the last month may be a drive to make the playoffs, not push for the Conference title or the Supporter's Shield, both of which are within reach. United has seven games in the next four weeks, six of which are MLS league games. Of those six games, four are road games. United will need to average 1.5 PPG in the road games and 2 PPG for the home games to keep pace with league leading New England and FC Dallas (1.80 PPG). Should they do that, DC will be at 51 points at the end of the regular season. New England and FC Dallas only need to average 1.5 points per game to reach 51 points. So the thought here is that it is a race to 54 points for the Supporter's Shield.

So looking ahead, here is how DC United gets the 24 points necessary by October 20th. Six games at home, six games on the road.

8/18 @Columbus W
8/22 NYRB W
8/25 @Toronto T
9/1 @ Dallas L
9/6 @ Chivas T
9/9 New England T
9/12 Real Salt Lake W
9/23 @ Chicago W
9/29 Toronto W
10/5 @ Kansas City L
10/13 Chicago W
10/20 Columbus W

So United needs to win seven and tie three out of twelve to get to 24 points. Looking at the schedule, it is possible, but not probable. United would need to really take advantage of the five out of seven at home to finish the season. Most likely United slips up a bit and loses three of the road games and one at home.

Since MLS went to the thirty game schedule, here are the point totals for the top three finishers. In 2006: 55, 52, and 48. In 2005: 64, 59, and 54. In 2004: 49, 49, and 43. In 2003: 53, 51, and 45.

My guess right now is United will finish with 50 points and in third place in the full table. From the three losses way back in April that started the season, that's a fine place to be heading into the playoffs.

SuperLiga Through Two Games

DC United is tied atop the Group B standings with 4 points along with Houston Dynamo. Morelia is in third with 2 points and Club America is in fourth with no points and is eliminated from advancing to the semifinals. United and Houston will go through with win, or a tie and a Morelia loss or tie, or a Morelia loss. DC and Dynamo play on Wednesday in Houston.

United has looked good in their first two games. The games appeared very similar in how they developed. DC takes an early 1-0 lead, the opposition has a player sent off, and United tries to hang on. Against Morelia, a volley from distance into the upper corner against the run of play cost United the full three points. United seemed to learn from that mistake and controlled the midfield and the pace of the game against Club America on Sunday.

I watched the game with my father-in-law, a Brazilian born soccer nut and he had some interesting comments on United's personnel. He was very impressed with Burch. His crosses were useful and he seemed to mesh well with Fred. He was very excited by the first half that Gomez had and was raving about him during the halftime. He could see Fred was very talented but still acclimating to the wing as he kept drifting to the center on occasion. Emilio had an off night, but he could see the vision. He loved Simms as a sub and wondered why he didn't start. And because I wear the #14 to all games, he took a particular interest in Olsen and saw why he is my favorite.

So this experience has caused me to look at what my "Ideal Eleven" would be at this point in the season. This assumes complete health for all players on the roster.

...................................Perkins.................................

Namoff.............Boswell...............Vanney.................Burch

...................................Simms...................................

..............Olsen..........................................Fred.........

....................................Gomez..................................

......................Moreno.....................Emilio................

Subs:

McTavish
Carroll the Elder
Gros
Addlery
Kpene
Moose
Nolly

So there is your 18 man game day roster. I firmly believe that group wins the Eastern Conference.

And on a side note, I hope DC United and the District officials have a plan in place to open as many parking lots as possible for the LA Galaxy game which is now sold out. Trying to force all cars through Lot 8 and letting that overflow into Lot 7 is a slow, painful process. Please, please, please open Lot 7 completely with multiple entrances. Lot 7 is gigantic, easily accessible from two exits off I-295 and always underutilized by those in charge. Have four people at each entrance to all lots taking money, not one or two. I really don't want to have to leave 2 hours early for that game to be in my seat at kickoff.