Two Months To Go - A Look Ahead

A very crowded schedule awaits DC United as they head into the final third of their regular season schedule. DC has put itself in fine position for a run to the playoffs, but the next four weeks may determine everything. While they have been dominating at home, on the road, DC is far from the same team. Their goal scoring (8 goals in 9 road games) and overall record of 3-1-5 (W-D-L), leave much to be desired and if they aren't able to correct the trend, the last month may be a drive to make the playoffs, not push for the Conference title or the Supporter's Shield, both of which are within reach. United has seven games in the next four weeks, six of which are MLS league games. Of those six games, four are road games. United will need to average 1.5 PPG in the road games and 2 PPG for the home games to keep pace with league leading New England and FC Dallas (1.80 PPG). Should they do that, DC will be at 51 points at the end of the regular season. New England and FC Dallas only need to average 1.5 points per game to reach 51 points. So the thought here is that it is a race to 54 points for the Supporter's Shield.

So looking ahead, here is how DC United gets the 24 points necessary by October 20th. Six games at home, six games on the road.

8/18 @Columbus W
8/22 NYRB W
8/25 @Toronto T
9/1 @ Dallas L
9/6 @ Chivas T
9/9 New England T
9/12 Real Salt Lake W
9/23 @ Chicago W
9/29 Toronto W
10/5 @ Kansas City L
10/13 Chicago W
10/20 Columbus W

So United needs to win seven and tie three out of twelve to get to 24 points. Looking at the schedule, it is possible, but not probable. United would need to really take advantage of the five out of seven at home to finish the season. Most likely United slips up a bit and loses three of the road games and one at home.

Since MLS went to the thirty game schedule, here are the point totals for the top three finishers. In 2006: 55, 52, and 48. In 2005: 64, 59, and 54. In 2004: 49, 49, and 43. In 2003: 53, 51, and 45.

My guess right now is United will finish with 50 points and in third place in the full table. From the three losses way back in April that started the season, that's a fine place to be heading into the playoffs.