A Look into the Future

I've been trying to figure out what would constitute a successful season for DC United this year. A part of me thinks that this could be a year when it takes until July or August to figure out how all the new parts fit together. But I can't help thinking that what we saw in the home leg against Harbour View shows that things could coalesce much earlier than that. So, the question becomes "Is DC United a Championship Caliber team?" Tough to answer given that the championship is decided in a playoff. So, how about "Will DC United retain the Supporter's Shield?" Now that's a question you can sink your teeth into. I've been fascinated the last two years with the end of season permutations on what amount of points will win it. Fifty-five points was the magic number the last two years over thirty games. Sixty-four won it in 2005, but in thirty-two games with two Western Conference expansion teams. Forty-nine won it in 2004. So I looked at the average number of points awarded per game and the number is somewhere between 2.69 and 2.82. The only other constant has been that expansion teams are awful in their first two seasons. So, I started there.

San Jose is in their first season and Toronto FC is in their second. Neither should break thirty points and San Jose will probably be around twenty. Then I divided the other twelve teams into two groups, contenders and pretenders. I came up with five contenders (DC, New England, Houston, LA, and Chivas) and seven pretenders (Dallas, New York, Chicago, Colorado, Kansas City, Columbus, and Salt Lake). I put them in order of finish and handed out the points as they tend to be distributed. Here is what I came up with.

DC United 55
Houston 54
New England 53
LA Galaxy 50
Chivas USA 47
Dallas 46
New York 44
Chicago 42
Colorado 41
Kansas City 38
Real Salt Lake 36
Columbus 33
Toronto 29
San Jose 20

Like fourteen wins in the NFL, 100 wins in baseball, and sixty wins in basketball, if you get to fifty-five points in MLS, you have a better than even chance of winning the Supporter's Shield. That is a 1.83 point per game pace. To maintain that pace, you can break down the season into five groups of six games. In each group you need to average eleven points or three wins, two ties, and one loss. So let's see where DC United and the rest of MLS is after six games.