Looking Ahead at the Chances

I don't know about anyone else, but I am starting to get excited for some thrilling times to come at RFK. If United can hold off the rest of the league, there is a potential for three home playoff games, one of which is the MLS Cup. So, since I love me some stats, I want to look at what I think the chances are that I will be at MLS Cup cheering on the Black and Red.

There are three factors involved in United playing in the MLS Cup at RFK.

1. Will United finish in first place in the East?
2. How does United play at home? How do the rest of the teams play on the road?
3. Are the best players healthy, available, and in the lineup?

To address the first factor, let's look at the potential playoff teams in the East.

DC - 49 Points, 5 Games (3 H, 2 A), Max Possible Points - 64
NE - 45 Points, 5 Games (2 H, 3 A), Max Possible Points - 60
NY - 37 Points, 5 Games (3 H, 2 A), Max Possible Points - 52
KC - 36 Points, 5 Games (2 H, 3 A), Max Possible Points - 51
CHI - 30 Points, 6 Games (3 H, 3 A), Max Possible Points - 48

So barring an epic collapse, United only has to worry about New England for top seed in the East. United has an extra home game over the Revolution and a four point cushion. United won the season series with two wins and a tie, so DC clinches the top seed with 60 points if NE maxes out their points. That is unlikely, so let's say they do really well and win four of the five games. United would need eight points to win the East. Win two of three at home and get two points on the road and they are there. Chances of winning the East: 90%.

If United wins the East, they have a home and home in the first round against New York, Kansas City, or Chicago. United is 9-2-1 (W-D-L) at home this season with a +13 goal differential. Their only loss was the first one in April, so United is on an eleven game unbeaten streak at home and a four game winning streak. The best road team of the three is Kansas City. They are 3-4-5 with a -4 goal differential. United on the road is one of only two teams to be above .500 at 6-2-5. United also has the best road goal differential at +7. So United has a distinct advantage in the first round. Chances of winning the first round: 80%.

Now, let's assume New England advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. United has owned them this year, outscoring them 8-3 in three games. United's home record compared to New England's road record (6-2-4, -2 GD) again favors United. Chances of winning the Eastern Conference Championship game: 70 %.

So that leaves the third factor, lineups. The DC United coaching staff seems to have figured out who the best players are and are getting tremendous results recently. My only quibble is Vanney over Boswell, but that is minor compared to Simms/Carroll. So, will everyone be available for each game? Injuries and suspensions can crop up. Chances of fielding the top lineup: 95%.

So, if my unscientific and completely subjective guesses are right, what are the chances of DC United hosting the MLS Cup at RFK? United has a 48% chance. See, that's why I am getting excited.